Software Estimation Educational Games
COSMIC Chaire philanthropique ETS

Game F • Risks, Budget & Contingency

Using information on risks and opportunities to select a budget and a contingency reserve

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Recommended: read "How it works" first

Learning objective

Teach students how to integrate a set of identified risks and opportunities into the selection of a project budget and an associated contingency reserve, taking into account the risk attitude of the project manager.

What the player sees

  • A regression model graph with equation line and ±MMRE bounds for a 500 CFP project
  • A reference table of 7 risks with their effort impact percentages (Low / Medium / High)
  • A reference table of 3 opportunities with their effort impact percentages (Low / Medium / High)
  • A probability scale ranging from Remotely to Near certainty
  • Three scenarios, each specifying an estimation range, a manager profile, and assigned impact and probability levels for each risk and opportunity

How the game works

  1. Select a manager profile (High risk-taking / On-target / Balanced).
  2. Select one of the three available scenarios for that profile.
  3. Answer 5 sequential budget questions using the questionnaire data.
  4. Return to profile and scenario selection; repeat for additional combinations.
  5. Trigger EndGame at any time after completing at least three scenarios.

Once a scenario is completed under a given profile, it becomes unavailable for that profile. The same scenario remains accessible under the other profiles.

Manager profiles

Three manager profiles are used throughout the game. Each reflects a distinct attitude toward budget risk and determines how the base budget is selected from the estimation range.

Profile Attitude Budget selection
High risk-taking Accepts the risk of being over budget Selects the lowest value of the estimation range
On-target strategy Seeks the highest probability of staying on budget Selects the highest value of the estimation range
Balanced risk-mitigation Balances risk and cost Selects the midpoint of the estimation range

Budget questions (5 per scenario)

For each scenario–profile combination, five questions are answered sequentially. Each question presents four multiple-choice answers (A / B / C / D).

Q1
Combined impact on effort
What is the net percentage impact of all risks and opportunities combined?
Q2
Project base budget
Which effort value does this manager profile select from the estimation range?
Q3
Project contingency reserve
What reserve covers the expected net impact of risks and opportunities on the base budget?
Q4
Corporate contingency
What additional reserve does the organization retain to cover the gap within the estimation range?
Q5
Total corporate budget
What is the total budget combining base budget, project contingency, and corporate contingency?

Teaching notes

This game extends estimation practice by introducing risk-based budget decisions and the distinction between project and corporate contingency reserves.

Suggested use in class

  • Introduce the concepts of risk, opportunity, and probability before the session
  • Have students compute individual risk and opportunity values by hand first
  • Discuss how manager risk attitude influences budget selection
  • Compare the three profiles side-by-side on the same scenario to highlight trade-offs
  • Emphasize the role of the corporate contingency as an organizational safety net

What to evaluate

  • Correct computation of individual risk and opportunity values
  • Accurate combined impact percentage (Q1)
  • Correct application of the manager profile to select the base budget (Q2)
  • Understanding of the project contingency as a percentage of the base budget (Q3)
  • Correct application of the corporate contingency rule (Q4)
  • Consistent aggregation to total corporate budget (Q5)

Downloads & documentation

Access game files, manuals, and supporting resources.

Questionnaire: game-f-questionnaire.html

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